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Clinical Article
Prediction of MGMT methylation status in glioblastoma using DTI and ASL histogram features and its association with prognosis
YU Fengwei  JIANG Hailong  CHEN Pinzhen  YANG Jing  LIU Ruishan  YANG Jianping  CHEN Jiafei  CHEN Wei 

DOI:10.12015/issn.1674-8034.2026.07.006.


[Abstract] Objective To explore the value of histogram parameters derived from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and arterial spin labeling (ASL) in the non-invasive preoperative prediction of the promoter methylation status of O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT), and to further analyze their correlation with patients' survival and prognosis.Materials and Methods We retrospectively analyzed DTI and ASL data from 349 patients with IDH-wildtype glioblastoma. Histogram parameters—including fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), and cerebral blood flow (CBF)—were extracted. Binary logistic regression models were built using DTI parameters, ASL parameters, and their combination. Patients were divided into two groups based on MGMT promoter methylation status (methylated vs. unmethylated), and comparisons were made between groups. Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. For survival analysis, we performed Kaplan-Meier analysis and used both univariate and multivariate Cox regression to examine associations between imaging features, molecular markers, and overall survival (OS). Bootstrap mediation analysis was conducted to test whether specific imaging parameters mediate the relationship between MGMT methylation status and survival.Results The DTI model (AUC = 0.842) significantly outperformed the ASL model (AUC = 0.619) in predicting MGMT methylation status. The combined DTI-ASL model (AUC = 0.859) was not significantly different from the DTI model alone (Z = 0.53, P = 0.593). Kaplan-Meier analysis confirmed that MGMT promoter methylation was a significant protective factor for prognosis (Log-rank P = 0.041, HR = 0.737, 95% CI: 0.550 to 0.989). However, Cox regression showed that although imaging parameters were significantly associated with MGMT methylation status, they were not independent predictors of OS. Mediation analysis revealed that the 10th percentile of FA mediated the relationship between MGMT methylation status and OS. Skewness of MD showed a statistical association with both factors but its mediation effect was not significant.Conclusions DTI histogram parameters serve as effective noninvasive imaging markers for predicting MGMT promoter methylation before surgery. The 10th percentile of FA is a key imaging factor linking unmethylated MGMT status to poor prognosis. MD skewness is statistically associated with this link, suggesting that disruption of tumor microstructure and increased tissue heterogeneity may mediate the effect of MGMT methylation status on patient outcomes. These findings offer a new imaging-based perspective for understanding the aggressive biological behavior of glioblastoma.
[Keywords] glioblastoma;magnetic resonance imaging;diffusion tensor imaging;arterial spin labeling;O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase;prognosis

YU Fengwei1, 2   JIANG Hailong2, 3   CHEN Pinzhen1, 2   YANG Jing1, 2   LIU Ruishan1, 2   YANG Jianping1, 2   CHEN Jiafei1, 2   CHEN Wei1, 2*  

1 7T Magnetic Resonance Translational Medicine Research Center, Department of Radiology, Southwest Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing 400038, China

2 Department of Radiology, Southwest Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing 400038, China

3 Department of Pharmacy, Southwest Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing 400038, China

Corresponding author: CHEN W, E-mail: landcw@tmmu.edu.cn

Conflicts of interest   None.

Received  2026-02-28
Accepted  2026-06-09
DOI: 10.12015/issn.1674-8034.2026.07.006
DOI:10.12015/issn.1674-8034.2026.07.006.

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